{"id":3696,"date":"2014-06-14T06:15:26","date_gmt":"2014-06-14T06:15:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/localhost\/wp3\/?p=3696"},"modified":"2014-06-14T06:15:26","modified_gmt":"2014-06-14T06:15:26","slug":"obamas-iraq-dilemma-fighting-isil-puts-us-and-iran-on-the-same-side","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sunnionline.us\/english\/2014\/06\/14\/3696\/","title":{"rendered":"Obama\u2019s Iraq dilemma: Fighting ISIL puts US and Iran on the same side"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"images\/stories\/news3\/daesh-map.jpg\" border=\"0\" style=\"float: right; margin: 5px;\" \/>The lightning offensive that has seen Al-Qaeda-inspired fighters drive government security forces out of some of northern Iraq\u2019s key cities has left the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>  <!--more-->  <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">facing a strategic dilemma: A fractious and fragile Iraqi state created by the American-led invasion in 2003 is crumbling; putting it back together \u2014 or, at least, containing the spread of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) \u2014 looks likely to require cooperation among foreign stakeholders who are anything but allies.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">President Barack Obama, fresh off a speech at West Point where he vaunted the successful withdrawal from a \u201csovereign, stable and self-reliant Iraq,\u201d confirmed in a hastily arranged press conference on the White House&#8217;s South Lawn on Friday that he wouldn&#8217;t send U.S. troops back to Iraq.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">But after rebuffing requests from Iraq\u2019s Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki for U.S. airstrikes on ISIL strongholds for months, according to The New York Times, Obama on Friday made clear that the speed of the rebel advance had prompted his administration to reconsider targeted military action \u2014 and maybe recalibrate his noninterventionist approach in the Middle East.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8220;The United States will do our part, but understand that ultimately it&#8217;s up to the Iraqis as a sovereign nation to solve their problems,&#8221; Obama said.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">&#8220;We won&#8217;t allow ourselves to be dragged back into a situation in which, while we&#8217;re there, we&#8217;re keeping a lid on things, and after enormous sacrifices by us, as soon as we&#8217;re not there, suddenly people end up acting in ways that are not conducive to the long-term stability of the country.&#8221;<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The president noted that the Iraqi security forces\u2019 setbacks weren\u2019t simply a result of their level of weaponry and technical capacity. Although the U.S. has spent some $14 billion over the past decade bolstering Iraqi forces, the problem is that the state those forces are intended to protect has never transcended its ethnic and sectarian rivalries to forge a stable national consensus, he said.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">At West Point, Obama outlined a vision of counterterrorism outsourced to local allies and proxies, but in the Iraqi case, U.S. officials see the politics of the local partner as part of what is driving the security problem. <\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Iraq\u2019s post\u2013Saddam Hussein political order remains deeply divided, and U.S. officials have long expressed frustration at Maliki\u2019s failure to forge an inclusive political compact with the political representatives of the country\u2019s Sunni minority. Even as Washington considers emergency action to shore up the Iraqi state, there\u2019s no evidence to inspire confidence that Maliki will substantially change the basis on which he governs.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">ISIL has flourished amid the alienation of Iraq\u2019s Sunni communities from the Shia-dominated Maliki government. Long before this week\u2019s takeover of Mosul and other towns and cities, Baghdad had lost control of Anbar province and faced widespread Sunni discontent with Maliki\u2019s rule.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The ease with which ISIL now operates there reflects the collapse of the \u201cAwakening\u201d strategy at the heart of the U.S. surge in 2007, when local Sunni militias recruited by the U.S. effectively drove Al-Qaeda and its offshoots out of the region. The Maliki government has progressively antagonized these groups, who don\u2019t appear to be resisting ISIL\u2019s latest surge.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Despite the security crisis, Iraq\u2019s parliament didn\u2019t even convene to consider allowing Maliki to declare a state of emergency, with many Sunni and Kurdish legislators boycotting the session because they oppose expanding the prime minister\u2019s powers.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The situation might have worked out differently had Maliki reached out to Sunnis, Kurds and other Iraqi minorities, some analysts said. The prime minister\u2019s failure to do so creates a dilemma for the U.S., which does not want to \u2014 with any potential military support \u2014 reinforce the power of a sectarian Shia government that has proved incapable of creating a national political consensus.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cAl-Maliki has become steadily more authoritarian, corrupt, and repressive,\u201d wrote Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies on Thursday. \u201cHe has made the Iraqi security force his political tool, deprived it of effective leaders, used security funds for his own profit, and brought his supporters and relatives into the command chain.\u201d This, Cordesman said, has empowered ISIL.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\"><strong>\u2018Bunch of thugs\u2019<\/strong><\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The challenge for Iraq\u2019s neighbors may be more acute, because their strategic rivalry has prompted Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey, among others, to back favored factions as proxies in their regionwide geopolitical contest.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Of all the regional powers, things are most clear-cut for Iran, the neighbor with whom Maliki is most closely aligned \u2014 an uncomfortable reality that U.S. conversation about Iraq has tended to overlook. Iran has promised to back Maliki to the hilt, much as it has done for its other key Arab ally, Syria\u2019s President Bashar al-Assad.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">At the same time, an unnamed senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran is willing to cooperate with the U.S. in confronting the challenge of ISIL in Iraq.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Saudi Arabia, Tehran\u2019s regional archenemy, is in a trickier position. Riyadh \u201chas regarded Maliki as little more than an Iranian stooge,\u201d wrote Simon Henderson of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cAlthough vulnerable to Al-Qaeda-types at home, [Gulf] countries (particularly Kuwait and Qatar) have often turned a blind eye to their citizens funding radical groups like Jabhat al-Nusra, one of the most active Islamist groups opposed to Bashar al-Assad in Syria,\u201d he wrote.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Even then, however, ISIL\u2019s emergence as a key player in the region is deeply threatening to the Saudis and their allies, too.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">But as Iran steps forward to help its ally in Baghdad \u2014 a source in Tehran said Iran\u2019s elite Quds Force has already deployed 150 men to help its neighbor \u2014 more robust Iranian involvement could further antagonize Iran\u2019s regional rivals.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">The dynamic on the ground, meanwhile, appears to foreshadow further fracturing. Even Thursday\u2019s good news for Baghdad \u2014 that Kirkuk had been reclaimed from ISIL \u2014 was a mixed blessing: It was not central government forces who expelled the rebels, but militia units of the autonomous Kurdish Regional Government in the north, which has long laid claim to the oil-rich city. Whether Kirkuk will be restored to control from Baghdad remains an open question.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Maliki has responded to the weakness of the state security forces by calling for an army of volunteers to take matters into their own hands \u2014 widely read as a move to revive the Shia militias that had come out on top in the country\u2019s sectarian civil war in 2006\u201307. That impression was underscored by Friday\u2019s call to arms by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the spiritual leader of Iraq\u2019s Shia.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, whose Mahdi Army was one of the largest sectarian militias, officially dormant since 2007, promised to reactivate some of its units to defend Shia holy sites. <\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">A slide back into sectarian warfare offers ISIL more fertile ground in which to operate, and the increasingly powerful nonstate actor poses a threat to all of the region\u2019s states, the antagonisms among them notwithstanding. But containing the danger will require a measure of cooperation and consensus among regional stakeholders Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and the U.S.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cEven if the territorial gains by [ISIL] are reversed, its offensive has already rapidly reframed analytical debates over the nature and fortunes of Al-Qaeda and the jihadist movement, the ability to contain spillover from Syria, possible areas of U.S.-Iranian cooperation and the viability of President Obama\u2019s light-footprint Middle East strategy,\u201d wrote Marc Lynch, director of George Washington University\u2019s Institute for Middle East Studies, on Thursday.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Nuclear talks suggest the U.S. and Iran are emerging from decades of icy relations, but any tentative rapprochement could be put to the test by the challenge of restoring Iraqi security. Even if they share a mutual interest in backing Maliki against ISIL, their broader strategic interests \u2014 and those of key U.S. ally and Iran adversary Saudi Arabia \u2014 are clearly divergent. But cooperation is hardly out of the question.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cIran and the U.S. have essentially been the only important allies for the Maliki government, because of its alienation from the Sunni Arab world,\u201d said Michael W. Hanna of the Century Foundation in Washington.<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">\u201cPeople are waking up to [that] now because we have it in its undiluted form \u2014 the prospect of them both giving direct military aid to Maliki. But that was the case when the U.S. was there \u2014 Iran was just playing a more complicated game, funding and training Shia militias.\u201d<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Those militias may now rejoin the fight, and the Iranians are likely to expand their own involvement to prop up Maliki \u2014 as will the U.S. \u201cI think we will help,\u201d said Hanna. \u201cI don\u2019t know exactly what that\u2019s going to look like, but I\u2019m fairly certain we will take some serious steps.\u201d<\/span><br \/><span style=\"color: #000000;\">These steps would be aimed at shoring up the central government and preventing the rebels from marching on Baghdad. But as Obama alluded to on Friday, stopping the resumption of broad-based sectarian civil war will be far more challenging.<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><span style=\"color: #000000;\">Source: <strong><em>Aljazeera<\/em><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The lightning offensive that has seen Al-Qaeda-inspired fighters drive government security forces out of some of northern Iraq\u2019s key cities has left the U.S.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3696","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Obama\u2019s Iraq dilemma: Fighting ISIL puts US and Iran on the same side - 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